Disclaimer: this market update is published for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes financial, investment, or legal advice. Sports card markets are speculative and illiquid. Values can rise or fall rapidly and without warning. Past card performance is not indicative of future results. We may hold positions in players and products discussed in this newsletter. All price data is sourced from publicly available market platforms and is accurate to the best of our knowledge at time of publication. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any purchasing decisions. By reading this newsletter you agree that Australia's #1 Rookie Card Shop and its principals accept no liability for investment decisions or financial outcomes arising from this content.

I am going to do more special inserts through the week like this. So, keep an eye out for them. They allow us to discuss things almost in real time without waiting for the one weekly report.

Now. This is a spicy offseason. I love it. Lots of player movement. And that means a lot of ripple effects into player’s markets surrounding the main trade guys. So, quick rundown of what + who we’re covering, and then we will dive in.

Three things in this issue:

• The major catalysts that happened in the NBA market were (1) Ja to Portland, (2) Kawhi to Toronto, (3) LeBorn opting out from the Lakers, (4) Kessler to the Lakers, and (5) Jaylen Brown to the 76er’s.

NOTE: I was going to dive into the NBA Draft here and forecast our strategy for who we’re watching, spotting value and buying into. But these drafts took so much time I’ll cover that in an update in the coming days. The same goes for Junior Caminero’s heated run — I’m holding his performances and market response for a future edition.

For each of the main nba players sections, I have tables from CardLadder on their historical Player Index and Sales Volume.

A player's index data represents the relative market value and price movement of that specific player's overall trading card market over time. Instead of showing the price of a single card, it aggregates a curated basket of the player's cards to track their broader market health.

The index uses an arbitrary "anchor point" or baseline starting value (usually set shortly after a player's core rookie products are released). The raw numerical score itself isn't a dollar amount; it is used to compare the player's market value against their own historical data points to gauge growth or decline.

A player’s sales volume represents the amount of money being moved in their overall card markets. This is not representative of just their rc’s. But with rc’s holding the largest market cap of all of a players cards, it’s a really good signal for them.

Kawhi Leonard

We can see the peak of his market was the raptors final win in 2019, which makes sense. But what’s most interesting to me is how well it’s held in the recent years given all his injuries and non-playing time (+ off field drama). This suggests the market has decided their stance on him, which is a good signal. And because of last season, his volume has shown consistent improvements and jumps too, signalling people are buying in. Personally, I am buying kawhi rc’s on the back of the future hof narrative.

But it’s the players his trade impacts that fascinates me most. The two I see really benefitting him from returning to TOR are Scottie Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles (CMB).

CMB had a rock-solid rookie season last year. He really stepped up and was a shining light for them in the postseason when Ingram, Poeltl and co went missing. Sandro going to the Lakers and Ingram + Dick to the Clippers opens more space and opportunities for him. Depending on what they do, he might find himself in a starting role at C as Poeltl was so poor last season. Kawhi is going to generate more attention on Toronto in the preseason, which means more eyes on him too. I see that all as good signal.

Scottie is an all-star and undervalued. 18/8/6 on 50% shooting with 1.5 blocks and steals a game. Yes, his ppg was down last season but the efficiency was better and he led the Raptors on a deep playoff run where his only real help was RJ Barrett. Kawhi is going to better Scottie’s game and opportunities because of the gravity he demands from defenses. And something tells me they’re ready to push further this coming season given the east isn’t too shaken up from recent trades.

The real signal is his overall market data.

If that index data doesn’t scream undervalued given Scottie’s on-court performances, I don’t know what does. The massive shift that’s coming is the narrative. Toronto were given nothing in the past few seasons as a team in the east. That fundamentally shifts with Kawhi there. I have this feeling we will see what we saw for Jalen Johnson and Deni Avdija last season happen for Scottie this season. Sales volume suggests demand is there, the prices simply have not risen yet.

LeBron James

This is not about where he is going. No point speculating until it happens. This is about the two players his leaving the lakers impacts most, as it’s now “their team” which brings added attention, stronger player narratives, and lakers demand.

Reaves signed his new 4yr, $185M deal. A lot of expectations come with it. LeBron isn’t there to hide behind anymore. As you can see from his volume data below, it’s highly volatile. People look like they’re only buying in when he’s playing well. That’s a bad signal as they don’t yet value anything else apart from that. All that said, his index is stable so value doesn’t move too much.

Now, Luka. He’s the face of Lakers. Bigger market than Dallas. He put together an MVP-calibre season last year before the late injury. He’s a blue chip with a rock solid narrative and immense sentiment from the market. Highly liquid. Index data is down right now, which is an interesting signal. We also know his market prices have cooled from their season average. For me, this is a buy.

The one thing Luka lacks is “legacy” in my eyes. Yes, there was the finals run. But there’s no MVP or Championship yet. They’re both massive catalyst events. The question is, how close do we think this Lakers team is to achieving that in a stacked west? Right now, i’m personally leaning more toward an MVP season catalyst than anything else.

I am always buying Luka rc’s of the right kind at the right price. He is one of those “elite” tier players who have an international market + demand. We’ve seen prices hold over the years. To me, that’s a signal we’re just waiting for the catalyst style events for the run to happen because the masses want to buy in

Ja Morant

We knew this trade was coming. I did not think Portland was where he would land. Huge shock to the system. But honestly, my gut says this is a big opportunity. Ja’s market absolutely crashed because of the past few years. What is really interesting though is that his signature shoe is still one of the biggest sellers. People aren’t necessarily “off ja”, they were off his cards because they lost value due to the market.

Now, let’s say Ja plays in this stacked young portland team. We know the market LOVES his play style. We know they have valued him in the past. I’m not saying his market gets back to where it was, but I do see a lot of emotional choices coming in should it begin to rise because of FOMO. A lot of people will think “this is the chance to win big”, which means holding a few rc’s now, at the low prices they’re available, creates solid exit windows in the future.

That’s my thinking anyway. The “volume” recently is also a signal I really like. People were buying into him, just the value was lower.

Now, onto the impacted players. There’s a few here on the Portland and Memphis side. First touch point is Scoot Henderson. Past injuries are a risk, but his performance late season were solid signal. There’s the “high draft pick bust” narrative around him, but there’s also the narrative of people wanting him to win. We saw price + volume increase when he performed last season - the question now is what do his opportunities look like? Portland are stacked to the gills on guards. Dame, Jrue, Ja, Scoot, Sharpe. There’s also the rumors they might trade him because of all the riches in back court. Right now, this is a watch. Too many unknowns for me. As soon as that is resolved, I’m leaning more into buy depending on what his opportunities look like. Potential 6moty?

I don’t see Deni’s market moving too much considering the rise last year. If anything, it stabilises and holds that new level unless he enters All-NBA conversations. We’ve had the all-star rise and #1 option rise. That said, buying now to sell into the preseason window is a solid choice if I wasn’t already in his market. Personally I would be playing small here as it’s unknown if the demand will be there considering all the player options available. We need to see where the media attention is.

Clingan will see a big boost on court with Ja. He proved he can shoot the three, is a monster on the boards both ends, and Ja’s explosiveness + playmaking will likely present a lot of dunks and easy baskets. That favours Clingan’s statsheet. Now, this is all personal experience; but Clingan was highly liquid and profitable for us last season. A lot of his cards are still undervalued for a big with his skillset who is on a rising young team like Portland. We never know how the market will act, but if history repeats itself + he stays health + Portland are a playoff team again, they’re all solid signs.

Now, the Grizzlies. I’m really interested in how Ja leaving impacts Boozer, Clayton Jr and Coward. JJJ and Aldama are also gone, but the only real certainty is Boozer will start and be integral. Coward showed promising signs last season, especially early, before falling off. He’s competing with Jerome, Pippin Jr, Clayton Jr, Cam Spencer and others for court time + usage. Right now, he is a watch for us for all these reasons. The same goes for Clayton Jr. The other risk with them is it’s Memphis and they’re likely going to have an irrelevant team narrative. The other side to that is they overperform and exceed expectations, which could cause a positive shift.

Boozer is one of the new rookies we will be heavily buying into this coming cycle. So much attention will be on Dybantsa + Peterson because of their playstyles + team narratives that Boozer (along with Wilson on the bulls) will take a back seat. I believe in Boozer’s potential upside and am okay with the minimal risk as the exit window for us will be longer term unless he crushes it coming out of the gate. Bigs don’t get as much love as guards, but in this game we’re all about maximising wins + minimising losses, no matter how big, and Boozer aligns with that strategy of ours.

Lastly, people have been asking me about GG Jackson. I can see him potentially being a guy on that team. But experience has taught me most teams have 1-2 guys who are solid buys and everyone else is a timing play. Honestly have no idea who the 1-2 guys for the grizz will be. He might be one of them. If that happens, our stance won’t change. Capital is better invested elsewhere.

Jaylen Brown

Another trade nobody saw coming. Brown led the Celtics last season and then is on the trade-block. Must have been a “get off his contract and sell high” situation. Who knows. I didn’t expect him to be in Philly, but he is. And I am excited about it. Why? Because of the push it gives Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe in the team narrative department.

Maxey has taken a performance jump every season. He’s proven. I do not see Brown changing this drastically. Yes, he might get less usage but he will get better looks because of the attention Brown commands. There’s also going to be less scoring pressure on him as there’s a certified scorer on the team in Brown who just proved he can be the #1 guy on a team.

The same goes for VJ. This might not impact his stats positively, but I feel it will affect his performances and market positively. As long as he takes a jump in how he plays and doesn’t become highly-inefficient and lose everything we saw last season, this trade is good. We experienced the market sentiment last season for him and the sole risk is the potential sophomore slump. We’re buying VJ Chrome and Case Hits. Like with all players, we’re not going too heavy into one player, but rather buying in what we’ve seen have demand if the offseason prices are right. VJ’s are right now with his market cooled down around/just below last season's average for most good cards.

Now for the Celtics; Tatum, Pritchard, Scheierman and Gonzalez all get lifts. Brown is gone so more usage and opportunities for them to shine. Boston is a large, liquid market. Tatum is the safest bet, especially how he performed late season after coming back from the ACL. Demand will be there, but prices are already pretty baked in, so any buys must be good. His legacy is also pretty set, so the only real catalyst event is MVP, ECF MVP and Finals MVP to see a spike in his market. I’d be leaning more toward Scheierman and Gonzalez than Pritchard because of the “unknown factor”. The market knows what Pritchard can do. Stepping in as starting PG and consistently performing + Boston hot start is what would push him up. The Celtics showed their belief in the other two though by not trading them. That’s the signal of more opportunities to me which is the sign I’m looking at.

Walker Kessler

Lastly, Kessler just signed the 4yr, $130M contract with the Lakers which immediately shifts his narrative. Yes, injuries have plagued him so that risk needs to be considered. But the other side is a solid two-way big playing alongside Luka Doncic and reaping all of those benefits. That’s the only reason we’d be buying as there is no individual positive narrative for Kessler just yet in the market. They’re going to need to see a healthy string of great games and the Lakers look like a top 3 team in the stacked west before it shifts. Because that's unknown, we’re watching all the way. He’s different to Clingan because of (a) his narrative is already set from his time in Utah and (2) he doesn’t offer as complete a skill set as Clingan.

On the Jazz side, this really excites me for Ace Bailey. I was concerned with his opportunities when you looked at the Jazz with Keyonte, Peterson, Lauri, JJJ and Kessler. But now, Kessler is gone. As it stands they have Nurkic, Filipowski, and JJJ who can play the 5. What I am imagining is this starting lineup: George, Peterson, Lauri, JJJ, Nurkic. If that happens, it means Ace is 6th man as he can fill the 3 and 4 role for either Lauri and JJJ while Filipowski steps in at the 5. If Nurkic or JJJ get into foul trouble, it gives even more opportunities for him. All that said, he is a watch. We saw his market rise last season, there’s the “what will Utah do” narrative and hype around them being much better. That’s a strong signal, but we need to see the lineups and signs of solid performance before doing anything.

Kessler leaving doesn’t impact Keyonte or Peterson as he barely played last season with Keyonte, and he shone. So there’s no need to discuss how the trades affect them here. We’re a buy on Keyonte as we have been since last season. As for Peterson, we will cover him + the other top draft picks in the issue this was planned to be about.

As always, thank you for being here with me.

I appreciate you.

Nick.

p.s: i've been working on an idea about starting a group for those of you subscribed where we can all connect, ask questions, and talk more about what's happening and what we're seeing in the market. i can also more easily share smaller snippets (like what we’ve covered here) more quickly and easily with you all as well as support with buying, selling, and growth of your endeavours. I have had positive feedback from the few I have asked about this, and would appreciate your feedback too. So, if this is something that interests you DM me on Instagram and I will let you know once it’s built. My intent is to build it with you so it has as much value and benefit as possible for you. All I ask is your feedback so that can be a reality for everyone in it.